The U.S. Census Bureau just announced last week that the Ocala is the fastest growing metro area in the United States.

For the second year in a row, no less.

Boomtown. Oh boy.

The business community is understandably celebrating. After all, more people mean more business. But they may want to pause and consider how all this remarkable growth – not just here, but across Florida – can be sustained.

We know about the increasing traffic congestion. And the disappearing open spaces. And the escalating cost of housing.

But nobody’s talking about our depleting water supply. Currently, about 90 percent of the state is suffering drought conditions. Here in Ocala, we are in a declared “extreme drought.” It can get worse, though – just ask the folks in the Panhandle where they are experiencing “exceptional drought” conditions.

Nature has contributed mightily to the current water crisis. No hurricanes last year shorted Florida essential rainfall to replenish its overpumped aquifer. And rainfall this year has been way below normal – so far in 2026 Ocala has only received 48 percent of its average rainfall total. Over the pat 12 months, the nation’s fastest growing metro area is 17 inches below normal rainfall totals.

Labels are one thing, but the reality is Tampa Bay and South Florida are both being warned there may be a “water shortage” sooner than later if something doesn’t change. Most of the state’s five water management districts have issued an array of water-use restrictions to help slow depleting our water supply.

In the Southwest Water Management District, which serves west Marion County, restaurants in some areas have been instructed not to serve water to customers unless it’s requested. If you wash your car, you must do it on your lawn. In Pinellas County, they’re going to start issuing fines for violations of water restrictions.

Even the business-friendly government watchdog Florida TaxWatch – hardly a bunch of environmental activists – warned two years ago that a water shortage was imminent if the Legislature didn’t act. So, of course, the Legislature hasn’t acted. There is too much money to be made developing more of the Sunshine State landscape.

Even the state itself, through its Department of Economic and Demographic Research, warned in 2024 that Florida could experience a water shortage starting in 2025 and lasting through 2040, when the state’s population is expected to be more than 5 million more than today.

It will require billions of dollars to do what is necessary to build “critical” water projects between now and then, and that’s not including the costs of restoration and other infrastructure that would be required. The kicker? No one knows where that money will come from.

Charles Lee, the legendary director of advocacy for Florida Audubon for more than half a century, told an Ocala audience in the early 2000s that the day will come in Florida when water bills will be higher than electric bills. It has not happened yet, but water is essential to living and with the words “water shortage” becoming part of the 2026 political and hydrologic lexicon, Lee sems likely to have been prescient. Because does anyone really think Big Development is going to pay for the tab?

There was a time in Florida when new development was approved based on adequate infrastructure to meet the demands of that growth. Roads, schools and water supply were all part of the equation. The in 2011, Rick Scott & Co. did away with such niceties and, well … here we are.

It is foolhardy to think that people are going to quit coming to Florida or that the Legislature or any local governing body is going to stem the flow of new people into our state. And certainly not in the nation’s fastest growing city.

But with skyrocketing homeowner insurance rates, steadily rising housing costs and, somewhere in the future, soaring water costs, Florida will simply become unaffordable, and the flow of newcomers will slow to a trickle.

Building new homes has always fueled Florida’s economy. It’s what we do. But without adequate drinking and bathing water at a price people can afford, you can build all the new houses you want, and you won’t have many buyers.

Water is essential. An absolute. An adequate and healthy water supply isn’t something we can put off like roads or classrooms. But that is what’s happening, and it has the potential to change our state and its people forever.